Faster means earlier? A panel data analysis of running speed on Marathon finish times

Despite the widespread popularity of marathon running, the quantitative relationship between pacing strategy and final performance remains under-explored in empirical economic literature. While physiological studies suggest a link, potential endogeneity issues—such as unobserved runner ability and environmental conditions—pose challenges to causal identification. This study utilizes a rich panel dataset of 5,000 participants from major urban marathons to estimate the impact of average running speed on finish times. Employing a runner fixed effects model and controlling for a comprehensive set of covariates including weather conditions and gear quality, we find a robust negative relationship between speed and finish time. Specifically, a 1 km/h increase in average speed corresponds to a significant reduction in total duration. These findings provide empirical support for the efficiency hypothesis in endurance sports and offer actionable insights for athletic training optimization.